4- VISIONS - Expected, preferred and alternative futures (10-15 years)

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VISIONS

EXPECTED, PREFERRED

AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Expected, preferred, and alternative futures are diferent ways of describing possible outcomes of

sustainability scenarios. These terms are often used in the context of sustainability planning to

explore and evaluate diferent possible future pathways.

Expected futures refer to the most likely outcome based on current trends, past data, and

projections. Expected futures are often used as a baseline for sustainability planning and can help

identify potential challenges and opportunities.

Preferred futures, on the other hand, describe a vision of what we would like the future to look like.

This vision is often based on desired outcomes and goals for sustainability, such as reduced carbon

emissions, increased biodiversity, or improved social equity. Preferred futures are used to guide

decision-making and to help stakeholders work towards a shared vision.

Alternative futures refer to possible outcomes that diverge from the expected future and the

preferred future. These scenarios are often developed to explore diferent pathways towards

sustainability, and can help identify potential trade-ofs and unintended consequences of diferent

choices.

By considering these diferent types of futures, sustainability planners can better understand the

complex and uncertain nature of sustainability challenges and develop strategies to create a more

sustainable future.

FUTURES LITERACY:

Now, as always, the future is uncertain. Climate change, pandemics, economic crisis, social exclusion, racism,

oppression of women, inter-generational confict, and more, shatter the conventional images of the future that

humans use to feel secure, to be confdent enough to invest in tomorrow.

This is not a small problem. Without images of the future that inspire hope and foster collaboration, there is a high

risk of despair and war. The malaise of poverty-of-the-imagination must be overcome.

Research in the feld of futures studies often distinguishes between three diferent approaches to understanding

the possible trajectories of our future:

The expected future, which is what we anticipate will happen based on current trends and knowledge. This

approach assumes that things will continue as they have been, and provides a baseline for planning and deci-

sion-making.

Alternative futures, which acknowledge that things may not go as expected and explore other possible outcomes.

These futures may involve the emergence of new technologies, unexpected events, or changes in social or political

systems.

Preferred futures, which represent a desired outcome that we hope to achieve. These futures are often based on

values such as sustainability, equity, or social justice, and require deliberate actions and decisions to bring about.

By considering these diferent approaches to understanding the future, we can better anticipate and plan for difer-

ent possibilities. We can identify potential risks and opportunities, and work towards creating a more desirable

future for ourselves and future generations.

LEARNING A NEW SKILL FOR DEEP TRANSFORMATION

A Sustainable Future Is Possible

New research shows that meeting global development and conservation goals together is

indeed possible. But only if we make if we make signiﬁcant changes in the ways we provide food,

water, energy and other resources. “An Attainable Global Vision for Conservation and Human

one we could face if we continue on a business-as-usual path. By addressing 10 of the United

Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the stu dy1 emphasizes the health of the

natural environment and links to human health and well-being.

UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDG

ADDRESSED DIRECTLY IN OUR ANALYSIS

The UN SDGs envision a world where all people are fed, healthy, employed, educated,

empowered and thriving, and where all other life persists.

1 The study was conducted by The Nature Conservancy, The University of Minnesota and 11 other institutions.

2 We recognize there are many interconnections among the SDGs. Represented here is the subset included in the modeling exercise.

Visit

nature.org/

twopaths

to learn more.

SDGs

OUR SUSTAINABLE PATH’S

CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE SDG

Better matching crops to growing conditions allows

for meeting calorie demands with less water on

substantially less land

Dramatically shifting energy sources away from fossil

fuels leads to massive reduction in air pollution exposure

Shifting where crops are grown reduces the number of

and supporting freshwater ecosystems

Increasing the share of renewable energy ensures

mitigating climate change

Decoupling aspects of economic growth from

environmental impacts mitigates degradation and

sustains per capita economic projections

Carefully siting clean energy infrastructure provides

Considering optimal locations and total land area use realizes

energy production and natural habitat protection

Stanching the ﬂow of harmful greenhouse gases limits

the global average temperature, meeting Paris Climate

Accord goals

Adopting sustainable management in all ﬁsheries

increases yields and ends overﬁshing while

improving biodiversity

Better siting of crops and energy infrastructure

ensures more natural habitat and protected areas

remain intact

LINKS ACROSS SDG s

AS EXPLORED IN

THE STUDY

Recent research has revealed

that it is possible to achieve

both global development and

conservation goals at the same

time, but doing so will require

signifcant changes in the way

we produce and consume

food, water, energy, and other

resources. A study titled "An

Attainable Global Vision for

Conservation and Human

Well-Being" examines the

possibility of creating a vastly

diferent world by the year

2050 if we depart from the

usual business-as-usual path.

By addressing ten of the

United Nations' Sustainable

Development Goals, the study

underscores the importance of

protecting natural habitats

and their links to human

health and well-being. The

fndings emphasize the urgent

need for action to create a

more sustainable and

equitable world for all.

“TNC developed two scenarios for

the future: one was business as

usual, and the other was a

conservation pathway. We learned

that by 2050 we can support both

conservation

and

economic

growth.”

TWO PATHS TO 2050

"As part of a long and ongoing listening journey with experts, activists, and

scholars across the world, this is how we envision our future:

AN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY THAT…

1. respects the limits of earth, our air, water, forests and climate and puts people

and planet before proft and infnite growth

2. provides fair distribution of wealth and power

3. enhances well-being of the people

4. is inclusive, just and diverse

5. promotes the resilience of our communities

AND GOVERNMENTS THAT…

6. increase transparency across political and economic processes

7. promote real civic participation

8. enhance peace and cooperation between countries

9. implement policies and mechanisms that hold state and corporations

accountable."

LETIS CHANGE THE FUTURE TOGETHER

Short-term, medium-term, and long-term approaches refer

to the time horizons over which actions are taken to achieve

sustainability goals. Each of these approaches has its own

implications for sustainability futures.

Short-term approaches focus on immediate actions to

address pressing issues. They typically involve quick fxes or

short-term solutions that can be implemented in the near

future. Short-term approaches can be efective in

addressing urgent issues, but they may not be sufcient to

achieve long-term sustainability goals. For example,

planting trees to combat deforestation is a short-term

solution that can provide immediate benefts, but it may

not address the underlying causes of deforestation.

Medium-term approaches involve actions that span several

years or a decade. These approaches aim to address the

underlying causes of sustainability problems and create

systemic change. They often involve policy and regulatory

changes, as well as investments in new technologies and

infrastructure. Medium-term approaches can be efective in

achieving sustainability goals over a longer time horizon,

but they may require signifcant resources and political will.

Long-term approaches involve actions that span several

decades or even centuries. They aim to create a more

sustainable future for future generations. Long-term

approaches often involve transformative change, such as

shifting to a circular economy or transitioning to renewable

energy sources. Long-term approaches require a long-term

perspective and a willingness to invest in the future, even if

the benefts may not be immediately visible.

In summary, short-term approaches can provide immediate

benefts but may not address the underlying causes of

sustainability problems. Medium-term approaches can

create systemic change but may require signifcant

resources and political will. Long-term approaches aim to

create a more sustainable future for future generations and

require a long-term perspective and a willingness to invest

in the future. A combination of short-term, medium-term,

and long-term approaches is often necessary to achieve

sustainability goals over diferent time horizons.

“This fgure shows projected greenhouse gas

concentrations for four diferent emissions pathways.

The top pathway assumes that greenhouse gas

emissions will continue to rise throughout the current

century. The bottom pathway assumes that emissions

reach a peak between 2010 and 2020, declining

thereafter.”

WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE

INNOVATION?

“Sustainable innovation involves making intentional

changes to a company’s products, services, or processes

to generate long-term social and environmental

benefts while creating economic profts for the frm.

That defnition comes from researcher Richard Adams,

who reviewed academic and industry research on the

topic.”

PROJECTED ATMOSPHERIC

GREENHOUSE GAS

CONCENTRATION

DIFFERENT APPROACHES

TO SUSTAINABILITY:

SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM

Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency.

https://climatechange.chicago.gov/sites/production/files/styles/medium/

public/2016-07/scenarioco2.jpg

Scenario development is a process of imagining plausible

future situations and exploring how they might unfold. To

do this efectively, scenario developers often draw on past

events and current signals of change to help inform their

projections of the future.

By studying past events, scenario developers can identify

patterns and trends that could indicate how the future may

unfold. For example, if there has been a pattern of

increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather

events in a particular region, this could suggest that such

events are likely to become more common in the future.

Looking at past responses to such events can also provide

insight into how people and organizations may react in

similar situations in the future.

Current signals of change can also be important inputs into

scenario development. These signals can include social,

economic, and technological trends that are currently

unfolding and could shape the future. For example, the rise

of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are

current signals of change that could dramatically impact

the future of the energy industry.

By factoring in both past events and current signals of

change, scenario developers can create more robust and

accurate projections of the future. This can help individuals,

organizations, and governments prepare for the challenges

and opportunities that lie ahead.

SCENARIO

DEVELOPMENT

TAKING THE LONG VIEW:

THE ‘FOREVER LEGACY’

OF CLIMATE CHANGE

It's hard enough to get people to think about what might

happen to our planet in the year 2100, but it's even harder

to think about what might happen just a couple of

centuries later. Recent research shows that we need to

think about what could happen 200 or 300 years from

now if we don't stop putting greenhouse gases into the

air. It might seem strange to use the word "urgent" for

something that won't happen for hundreds of years, but

the truth is that if we don't stop polluting, it will change

the planet in a big way for thousands of years to come. So

it's really important that we start doing something about

it now, even if we won't see the efects in our lifetime.

THIS IS

YOUR

HOME!

STOP

CLIMATE

CHANGE

SAVE

CLIMATE

CHANGE

IS REAL!

PARTICIPATORY SCENARIO

DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE

CHANGE ADAPTATION

Scenario development is a method for exploring diferent

possible futures and how they could be impacted by

climate change and diferent adaptation options. This

helps decision makers, such as policy makers and service

providers, to understand what types of policies and

investments may be needed to adapt to these potential

futures. Participatory scenario development involves

getting input from local people to understand their

priorities and knowledge when making these decisions.

Scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but

rather a way to explore diferent outcomes based on

diferent

assumptions.

Stakeholder

involvement

increasingly important in the scenario development

process.

INNOVATION NEEDS IN THE

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

SCENARIO

SCENARIOS CAN

INFORM DECISION

MAKING

Scenarios can be used to explore diferent potential

futures and how they might impact our world. By

creating scenarios, we can identify possible risks and

opportunities for a sustainable future. Decision-makers

can use these scenarios to assess the efectiveness of

diferent policies and actions, and to identify which

choices will best support sustainable development.

For example, a scenario could explore how a certain

policy might afect greenhouse gas emissions and air

pollution, as well as the economic and social impacts of

that policy. Decision-makers can then compare this

scenario to others and choose the one that provides the

most positive outcomes for a sustainable future.

By using scenarios to inform decision-making, we can

better understand the potential consequences of our

actions and make more informed choices about how

we build a sustainable future.

WHAT ARE THE SDG IMPACT

STANDARDS?

The SDG Impact Standards are a set of guidelines that

help companies and investors make decisions that

support

sustainability

and

the

Sustainable

Development Goals. These guidelines are similar to

other standards that companies follow, like ISO

standards. The

SDG

Impact

Standards

help

companies fgure out how to measure their impact on

sustainability and the SDGs. They are not rules for

external reporting or measuring how well a company

is doing. Instead, they are a way for companies to

make good choices that support sustainability and

the SDGs. The SDG Impact Standards use existing

ideas and tools but also fll in gaps to help companies

make better decisions that support sustainability and

the SDGs.

In order to achieve the goal of zero emissions, we need to

adapt or transform most of the energy system we use

today. This means we need to develop and use new

technologies that can meet our energy needs while

reducing our carbon footprint. However, developing and

bringing new technologies to the market takes a lot of

time, and we can't predict which ideas will be successful.

The Sustainable Development Scenario focuses on using

technologies that are already proven and have a clear

pathway to commercial scaling up. Still, unexpected

events and responses from companies, investors, and

governments could delay or disrupt the clean energy

transition.

Around 75% of the emissions reductions needed by 2070

will come from technologies that are not yet widely

available, so we need to focus on developing these

technologies in heavy industry and long-distance

transport. Overall, technological change is a key driver of

the clean energy transition, but it requires a lot of time,

efort, and investment to make it happen.

When we think about the future, we often look at big,

long-term trends called "mega-trends." These trends

afect a lot of people, places, and even the whole world

over a long period of time, often at least a decade or

more. Because they are already happening, we can see

and measure them. Mega-trends are like a big,

slow-moving force that shapes our future, and they are

hard to change quickly. But because they are based on

data from the past, they are more reliable than other

predictions about the future.

EFFECTS CAUSED BY HUMANS PLAY A MAJOR

ROLE WHEN MAPPING ALTERNATIVE AND

PREFERRED FUTURE SCENARIOS.

Efects caused by humans, such as economic growth, population growth, technological advancements, and changes

in behavior, have a signifcant impact on the environment and society. When mapping alternative and preferred future

scenarios, it is important to consider these human-driven factors as they shape the trajectory of the future. Without

taking into account the efects caused by humans, it would be impossible to accurately predict what the future may

look like or what actions could lead to a desired future outcome. Understanding how human-driven factors impact the

environment and society is crucial for developing policies and strategies that promote sustainability and a better

future for all.

ON THE ROAD TO THE FUTURE: THE CATALYSTS

When we think about the future, we're better at

predicting things that are far away than things that are

close. This is because things that happen quickly and

don't last very long are harder to see. These

fast-changing things are called "catalysts" because

they speed up or slow down other big trends. Unlike

these big trends, we can change catalysts more easily,

but they can also cause other changes. Catalysts

happen quickly, usually within six months to fve years,

and afect people's daily lives. For this reason, they are

important to pay attention to in planning for the future.

An example of a catalyst is a violent confict, which

requires quick action and can trigger other changes like

migration or populism. Decision-makers need to focus on

catalysts because they happen quickly and require

immediate attention, unlike slow-moving big trends.

MEGA

THE IMPACT AND

UNPREDICTABILITY

OF HUMAN ACTIONS ON

THE ENVIRONMENT

Human actions can have unpredictable, uncertain, and

complex consequences on the environment because the

environment

complex

system

with

many

interdependent components. Human actions can afect

the environment in multiple ways, sometimes in

unexpected and unpredictable ways. For example, when

people build a new factory, they may not anticipate the

impact it will have on the air quality, water quality, or soil

health in the surrounding area. Similarly, when humans

introduce a new species of plant or animal to an

ecosystem, they may not realize the impact it will have on

the existing plants and animals in that ecosystem.

Moreover,

environmental

systems

are

highly

interconnected, meaning that changes in one part of the

system can have unforeseen consequences in other parts

of the system. These consequences can sometimes emerge

over long time frames, making them difcult to predict in

advance. Additionally, environmental systems often have

nonlinear responses to human actions, meaning that small

changes can have large, unexpected impacts.

Overall, the complexity of environmental systems, coupled

with the unpredictability and uncertainty of human

actions, means that the consequences of human actions

on the environment can be highly uncertain and difcult

to predict.

Over the past ffty years, there have been many

environmental disasters that have had serious

consequences. These

disasters

have

led

important advances in science, engineering, and

policy, as we work to prevent or reduce the impact

of future disasters. By studying these disasters that

have happened on land, in water, and in the

atmosphere, we can better understand what went

wrong and how we can do better in the future. We

can also imagine new solutions to help prevent or

minimize future disasters. This ongoing efort to

learn from the past and improve the future is

essential for protecting our planet and our

well-being.

HUMANS INDUCE AND

REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL

DISASTERS

AN UNPREDICTABLE

ENVIRONMENT

In this video segment adapted from the International

Institute for Sustainable Development, Inuit observers

share how their traditional knowledge of weather

patterns is being disrupted by unpredictable weather

behaviors. A female Inuit elder explains how, in the

past, women and girls were responsible for forecasting

the weather for hunting trips using traditional knowl-

edge. However, recent changes in climate have made it

difcult to predict the weather and associated animal

behaviors, which is afecting their subsistence lifestyle.

This highlights the impact that climate change can

have on traditional knowledge and ways of life.

HOW HUMANS

DISRUPTED A CYCLE

ESSENTIAL TO ALL LIFE

"How one animal dug up carbon and put it back into

the atmosphere at an astounding pace."

COMPLEX SOCIOECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS

REQUIRE NOT ONE BUT MANY SOLUTIONS

Complex socioecological problems are characterized by their multifaceted nature and the interdependence of social and

ecological factors. These problems are often infuenced by a wide range of variables, including economic, political,

cultural, and environmental factors. Given this complexity, there is no single solution that can efectively address all the

underlying causes and consequences of these problems in all contexts and at all times.

One reason for the lack of a single solution is the diversity of social and ecological contexts. Diferent regions have diferent

histories, cultures, geographies, and socio-economic conditions, which can shape the manifestation and severity of

socioecological problems. For example, a strategy that successfully addresses a particular environmental problem in one

region may not be as efective in another region due to diferences in climate, topography, and local socio-economic

conditions.

Furthermore, complex socioecological problems are dynamic and constantly evolving. This means that the solutions that

work today may not work tomorrow as the underlying conditions change. As such, a range of solutions is needed to

address these problems over time. Moreover, these solutions need to be adaptive and fexible enough to respond to the

changing needs of the social-ecological system.

Finally, socioecological problems often involve conficting goals and interests of diferent stakeholders. For example, a

policy that promotes economic development may lead to environmental degradation or social inequality. Resolving such

conficts requires balancing trade-ofs between diferent objectives and interests, which can vary depending on the

context and time.

In summary, the complexity, diversity, and dynamism of socioecological problems require a range of alternative solutions

that are adapted to the specifc context and time. An efective approach to addressing these problems requires fexibility,

adaptability, and a willingness to embrace multiple perspectives and interests.

SUSTAINABILITY OF COMPLEX

SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS:

METHODS, TOOLS, AND APPROACHES

Social-ecological systems (SES) are complex and dynamic systems

where ecological and social elements interact and infuence each

other through feedback loops. These systems are made up of

interdependent subsystems and are crucial for supporting human

well-being and sustainable resource management. Failure to

recognize the interdependence and dynamics of SES has resulted in

environmental problems, climate change impacts, biodiversity loss,

and resource degradation. Addressing such sustainability challenges

requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches as

traditional disciplinary approaches alone are not sufcient.

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