When we think about the future, we often look at big,
long-term trends called "mega-trends." These trends
afect a lot of people, places, and even the whole world
over a long period of time, often at least a decade or
more. Because they are already happening, we can see
and measure them. Mega-trends are like a big,
slow-moving force that shapes our future, and they are
hard to change quickly. But because they are based on
data from the past, they are more reliable than other
predictions about the future.
EFFECTS CAUSED BY HUMANS PLAY A MAJOR
ROLE WHEN MAPPING ALTERNATIVE AND
PREFERRED FUTURE SCENARIOS.
Efects caused by humans, such as economic growth, population growth, technological advancements, and changes
in behavior, have a signifcant impact on the environment and society. When mapping alternative and preferred future
scenarios, it is important to consider these human-driven factors as they shape the trajectory of the future. Without
taking into account the efects caused by humans, it would be impossible to accurately predict what the future may
look like or what actions could lead to a desired future outcome. Understanding how human-driven factors impact the
environment and society is crucial for developing policies and strategies that promote sustainability and a better
future for all.
ON THE ROAD TO THE FUTURE: THE CATALYSTS
When we think about the future, we're better at
predicting things that are far away than things that are
close. This is because things that happen quickly and
don't last very long are harder to see. These
fast-changing things are called "catalysts" because
they speed up or slow down other big trends. Unlike
these big trends, we can change catalysts more easily,
but they can also cause other changes. Catalysts
happen quickly, usually within six months to fve years,
and afect people's daily lives. For this reason, they are
important to pay attention to in planning for the future.
An example of a catalyst is a violent confict, which
requires quick action and can trigger other changes like
migration or populism. Decision-makers need to focus on
catalysts because they happen quickly and require
immediate attention, unlike slow-moving big trends.
MEGA