Scenario development is a process of imagining plausible
future situations and exploring how they might unfold. To
do this efectively, scenario developers often draw on past
events and current signals of change to help inform their
projections of the future.
By studying past events, scenario developers can identify
patterns and trends that could indicate how the future may
unfold. For example, if there has been a pattern of
increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather
events in a particular region, this could suggest that such
events are likely to become more common in the future.
Looking at past responses to such events can also provide
insight into how people and organizations may react in
similar situations in the future.
Current signals of change can also be important inputs into
scenario development. These signals can include social,
economic, and technological trends that are currently
unfolding and could shape the future. For example, the rise
of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are
current signals of change that could dramatically impact
the future of the energy industry.
By factoring in both past events and current signals of
change, scenario developers can create more robust and
accurate projections of the future. This can help individuals,
organizations, and governments prepare for the challenges
and opportunities that lie ahead.
SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT
TAKING THE LONG VIEW:
THE ‘FOREVER LEGACY’
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
It's hard enough to get people to think about what might
happen to our planet in the year 2100, but it's even harder
to think about what might happen just a couple of
centuries later. Recent research shows that we need to
think about what could happen 200 or 300 years from
now if we don't stop putting greenhouse gases into the
air. It might seem strange to use the word "urgent" for
something that won't happen for hundreds of years, but
the truth is that if we don't stop polluting, it will change
the planet in a big way for thousands of years to come. So
it's really important that we start doing something about
it now, even if we won't see the efects in our lifetime.
THIS IS
YOUR
HOME!
STOP
CLIMATE
CHANGE
ME
SAVE
CLIMATE
CHANGE
IS REAL!
PARTICIPATORY SCENARIO
DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
Scenario development is a method for exploring diferent
possible futures and how they could be impacted by
climate change and diferent adaptation options. This
helps decision makers, such as policy makers and service
providers, to understand what types of policies and
investments may be needed to adapt to these potential
futures. Participatory scenario development involves
getting input from local people to understand their
priorities and knowledge when making these decisions.
Scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but
rather a way to explore diferent outcomes based on
diferent
assumptions.
Stakeholder
involvement
is
increasingly important in the scenario development
process.