STATE
OF
THE
MARKET
Q1 2024
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
Table of Contents
UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication (Q4-2023)………………...……....... 04
Population………………………………………………..……………………..………....... 06
1.1 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) 2010 – Present
1.2 Metro Vancouver Population (15+) Growth Rate (%yoy)
1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration
1.4 British Columbia International Migration
1.5 British Columbia Net Migration
1.6 BC’s Population Growth Breakdown
Economic Indicators ………………………………………………………………....…... 08
2.1 Five-Year Posted Rate (%)
2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver
2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 2010 – Present
2.4 BC Unemployment Rate
2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 2010 – Present
2.6 Canada GDP: 2009 – Present
Economic Indicators ...………………………………………………………..….....….....10
3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada
3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 2010 – Present
3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars)
3.4 BC Bankruptcies
3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close)
3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded
Housing Economic Indicators ………………………….............................................. 14
4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations
4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations
Housing Economic Indicators…………………………………………..……….……..... 16
5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts
5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts
5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts
5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver
5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver
5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates
New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums ………………………………...…….......18
6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing
6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales
6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels
6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels
New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums …...…………………………..…...... 20
7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing
7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales
7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels
7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels
New Home Data: Townhomes …………………………..............................…............ 22
8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing
8.2 Townhome Sales
8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels
8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels
Zonda Urban Affordability Index: New Home Data .…………………..…………......26
9.1 Zonda Urban Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums
9.2 Zonda Urban Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums
9.3 Zonda Urban Affordability Index: New Townhomes
Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver......................................... 28
10.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings
10.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices
10.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings
10.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices
10.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings
10.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices
Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board……………………..…………………………......... 30
11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings
11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices
11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings
11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices
11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings
11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices
New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments………………………..…......... 32
12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver
12.2 Turnover Rates by Region
12.3 Availability Rates by Region
12.4 Current Rent Per Square Foot
12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages
Methodology & Definitions……..……………………………………………………...… 36
Definitions
Analytical Methods
Other Assumptions
Sources ………………………………………………………………………………......…. 36
Sources
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
Overview
compared to the same quarter last year. Year-over-year,
the total number of housing starts has remained relatively
constant, experiencing a mere 0.2 percent increase, despite
the significant increase in population growth occurring in the
in the region over the past year.
Housing prices are more likely to fall in the event where
new housing supply exceeds current demand levels. Note
that most new housing starts have already been sold in
the pre-sale market and do not necessarily represent the
number of new units coming to market that will be available
for purchase.
The 2nd graph below shows the ratio of Metro Vancouver’s
population growth to housing starts. The Q1-2024 ratio of 4.2
was 6.4 percent above the quarterly five-year average. Out of
the 9,708 units released in actively selling pre-sale projects
that had not begun construction by the end of the quarter,
58 percent (5,621 units) have already been sold. This total
sold will continue to increase before construction of these
units completes. Further, the population tables above do
not factor in demand for housing from temporary residents
in Metro Vancouver each year (i.e. International Students &
Temporary Foreign Workers).
costs, labor shortages, and increasing development cost
charges (DCCs). These factors may render development
projects less feasible or lead to future cost increases for
homebuyers.
GLOBAL ECONOMIC FACTORS
The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in
Q1-2024, which was below the 3.3 percent annual growth rate
observed in the preceding quarter. Despite the slowdown,
inflation in the US increased by 3.4 percent over the first
quarter of 2024, with some economists pointing to rising
oil prices and conflict in the Middle East as a contributing
factor. With inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s
two percent target, the anticipated interest rate cut initially
projected for this year could be postponed to 2025.
Major stock market indexes maintained their upward
trajectory in the first quarter of 2024 and were bolstered by
optimistic market sentiment and rising corporate revenues.
The S&P 500 recorded a notable 10 percent increase and
both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes achieved record highs
in the first quarter of the year. Some of the top performing
companies over the past year were computer semiconductor
and chip manufacturers (i.e. Nvidia and Broadcom) who have
benefitted from the surge in demand for AI-related software
applications. We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition
of the State of the Market report and find it informative, helpful,
and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or
comments on the publication.
Sincerely,
Welcome to the latest edition of
Urban Development Institute’s
State of the Market Q1 2024
quarterly publication.
The Q1-2024 “State of the Market” report provides current
quarterly statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale
housing markets as well as a composite of relevant economic
statistics that impact the housing market. The report also
includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market
in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Zonda Urban Housing
Affordability Index derived from Zonda Urban’s NHSLive
database and BC Housing’s new home registry statistics.
The graph below shows the trend of Metro Vancouver’s
housing starts (one start = one unit) and population change
over the past five years. This quarter, Metro Vancouver’s
total population aged 15 and older increased by 26,200
residents, a 1.1 percent increase from the previous quarter.
Total housing starts (6,268 units in Q1-2024) were up by
682 units when compared to the five-year average of first
quarters but decreased by 402 units (six percent) when
LOCAL ECONOMIC FACTORS
Metro Vancouver’s new home market experienced a slow
start to the year, with a total of 2,713 pre-sales recorded
in Q1-2024. First-quarter sales were 15 percent lower than
the previous quarter but were still up 27 percent from the
short-term lows achieved in Q1-2023. The number of new
projects launched so far this year has been somewhat
restricted, with only 21 new project launches, totaling 1,937
units, introduced in Q1-2024. This total is significantly lower
than the 40 project launches and 5,431 units released to
the market last quarter. Some developers have proceeded
cautiously and others continue to wait for optimal conditions to
launch their respective projects. Successful project launches
in Q1-2024 have been characterized by strategic community
placements, competitive pricing, low deposit structures, and
creative incentive offerings.
BC’s provincial government unveiled its annual budget in
early 2024, which included several housing related legislative
items. One of the more notable items was the Flipping Tax
which, when implemented in 2025 will levee a tax on the
profit from selling a home unless the property has been
owned for at least two years. In addition to the Flipping Tax,
the BC government raised the Property Transfer Tax (PTT)
thresholds for first-time homebuyers and new construction
homes.
Supply issues persist as a primary concern in the Lower
Mainland, particularly as municipalities strive to meet their
housing targets outlined in the Housing Supply Act. The
Federal government continues to allocate additional federal
funding from the $4 billion Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) to
various cities in BC to alleviate supply constraints. However,
numerous hurdles persist for stakeholders in the housing
industry to effectively address market challenges associated
with higher interest rate environments, high construction
OVERVIEW
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
Population
BC continues to
experience high levels of
international migration.
INSIGHTS AND COMMENTS
• Metro Vancouver’s population (aged 15+) increased to
2,505,300 residents at the end of Q1-2024.
• This was 26,200 more residents than the previous
quarter and represents a 3.8 percent increase (a 0.6
percent increase in growth rate) when compared to
Q1-2023.
• The most recent available data (Q4-2023) showed a
net overall migration of 30,181 to BC, a decrease of
51.0 percent (31,375 fewer migrants) when compared
to the previous quarter and 7.8 percent lower (2,548
fewer migrants) than Q4-2022.
POPULATION
• Net interprovincial migration for the most recent update
(Q4-2023) showed a net loss of 2,728 residents,1,906
more than Q3-2023 but 898 fewer when compared
to Q4-2022.
• BC continues to experience high levels of
international migration. Most recent available data
(Q4-2023) showed 32,909 immigrants to BC, which
was 50.3 percent lower (33,281 fewer migrants) than
Q3-2023 and 4.8 percent lower (1,650 fewer) than
Q4-2022.
State of
the Market
Insights
and Comments
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
Economic Indicators
Metro Vancouver’s
unemployment rate
declined to 5.4 percent.
INSIGHTS AND COMMENTS
• The five-year posted rate increased to 6.84 percent at
the end of the quarter.
• Canada’s consumer price index increased by 2.9 percent
from Q1-2023 to Q1-2024, while Metro Vancouver’s CPI
increased by 2.8 percent over that period.
• Metro Vancouver’s labour force in Q1-2024 totaled
1,706,200, a 0.5 percent decrease from the previous
quarter but a 3.8 percent increase from Q1-2023.
• Metro Vancouver’s unemployment rate declined to
5.4 percent in Q1-2024, a 8.5 percent decrease from
the previous quarter but a 10.2 percent increase from
Q1-2023.
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
• Based on the most recent data available (Q4-2023), just
above $27.1 billion worth of retail sales were recorded
in Canada over Q4-2023, which was 0.4 percent lower
than the previous quarter but 6.8 percent higher than
the same quarter last year.
• The most recent data available (Q4-2023) shows an
increase in Canada’s GDP to around mid $2.3 trillion at
the end of the quarter. This total was an increase of 7.8
percent when compared to the same quarter last year.
State of
the Market
Insights
and Comments
10
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
11
Economic Indicators
Crude oil increased to
$83.55 USD per barrel
by the end of Q1-2024.
INSIGHTS AND COMMENTS
• The Federal budgetary balance showed a deficit of
$31.5 billion in Q4-2023. The deficit has increased by
$20.9 billion when compared to the previous quarter’s
net deficit but was $6.2 billion less than the net deficit
recorded in Q4-2022.
• In the most recent data available (Q4-2023), investment
in new multi-family construction in BC totaled just
under mid $2.1 billion, which represents a 0.5 percent
decrease from the previous quarter but a 0.7 percent
increase when compared to Q4-2022.
• The price of crude oil increased to $83.55 USD per
barrel by the end of Q1-2024. This was a 10.3 percent
increase from the previous quarter and a 9.3 percent
increase from the same quarter last year. Current crude
oil prices are 18.6 percent higher than the five-year
average price of $70.43 USD per barrel.
• There were 583 bankruptcies recorded in BC in
Q1-2024, an increase of 0.5 percent from Q4-2023 and
up 9.6 percent from Q1-2023.
• The DJIA Increased to 39,807 points at the end of
Q1-2024, a 19.6 percent year-over-year increase.
• The value of TSX shares traded has Increased from
$214.5 billion in Q4-2023 to $236.3 billion at the end
of Q1-2024.
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
State of
the Market
Insights
and Comments
12
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
13
Economic Indicators
14
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
15
Housing Economic Indicators
Home registrations of all
product types total 4,320
units in Q1-2024.
INSIGHTS AND COMMENTS
• Single family home registrations in Metro Vancouver
totaled 636 in Q1-2024, up 11.2 percent (64 more
units) from the previous quarter but down 7.3 percent
year-over-year.
• The Outer Metro region accounted for 45 percent (286
units) of the total single family home registrations,
while 29 percent (186 units) were in the Inner Metro
region and 26 percent (164 units) were in the City of
Vancouver.
• Multi-family home registrations in Metro Vancouver
totaled 3,684 in Q1-2024. This was a 28 percent
increase from the previous quarter and an 18 percent
increase on a year-over-year basis.
The research report has been published under Staff
Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada.
• “Single” includes the new single detached homes
enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved
Owner Builder Authorizations.
• “Multi” includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings
(two or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty
insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit
rental buildings (purpose-built rentals).
• New 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024
data has been added for Squamish (Inner Metro) and
Abbotsford (Outer Metro).
Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures
over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from
home warranty insurance from time to time.
All new homes in the province must be registered with BC
Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in
the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are
enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against
construction defects. The registration of new homes must
occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing
starts. The new home registrations measure residential
construction activities at the beginning of a project before
construction commences and indicates the number of units
included in each project.
A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in
collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new
home registration data under the Homeowner Protection
Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic
activity in B.C.
The research finds that quarterly increases in new
registrations for single-detached homes have statistically
significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over
the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger
signals compared to housing starts and building permits
over this forecast horizon.
HOUSING
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
• When compared to the previous quarter, total
multi-family registrations increased in the Inner and
Metro regions as they experienced a 33 percent increase
and a 35.5 percent increase, respectively, while the City
of Vancouver experienced a decrease of 27.2 percent.
• In the First Quarter of 2024, multi-family home
registrations were distributed across regions as follows:
49 percent (1,814 units) in the Outer Metro region, 45
percent (1,656 units) in the Inner Metro region, and six
percent (214 units) in the City of Vancouver.
• It is important to note that a large majority of these units
have already been pre-sold up to two years prior to
construction beginning.
• Home registrations of all product types in Metro
Vancouver total 4,320 units in Q1-2024, a 25.2 percent
increase from the previous quarter.
State of
the Market
Insights
and Comments
16
17
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
Housing Economic Indicators
A total of 7,195 new
housing starts were
recorded in Q4-2023.
INSIGHTS AND COMMENTS
• A total of 6,268 new housing starts were recorded in
Q1-2024, a 12.9 percent decrease (927 fewer units)
from the previous quarter. The largest contributor to
housing start totals in Q1-2024 was the Outer Metro
region, which accounted for 42 percent (2,635 starts)
of all new starts in Metro Vancouver.
• A total of 354 townhome starts, 5,556 apartment starts,
and 358 single family starts were recorded in Q1-2024.
• In the most recent data available (Q4-2023), the 3-month
average of building permit values was $728.1 million in
Q4-2023, a decrease of 20.9 percent ($192.8 million)
from the same quarter last year.
• The new home price indices in Q1-2024 for Metro
Vancouver decreased slightly by 0.2 percent while BC
also decreased slightly by 0.1 percent from Q4-2023.
Price indices for Metro Vancouver and BC were 7.5
percent and 7.2 percent above their five-year averages,
respectively.
• Based on the most recent available data (October
2023), rental housing vacancy rates decreased in three
regions of Metro Vancouver: Burnaby/New Westminster,
Richmond/Delta, and the City of Vancouver. Refer to
methodology on Page 36-37.
State of
the Market
Insights
and Comments
HOUSING
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
18
19
UDI State of the Market Q1-2024
New Home Data
A total of1,310 new
concrete condominiums
were sold in Q1-2024.
INSIGHTS AND COMMENTS
• A total of 162 new concrete condominium projects were
actively selling across Metro Vancouver at the end of
Q1-2024. This reflects a decrease of two projects
compared to the previous quarter but a one-project
increase from the same quarter last year.
• The Inner Metro region accounted for 54 percent
(87 projects) of all actively selling, new concrete
condominium projects while the City of Vancouver
accounted for 35 percent (56 projects) and the Outer
Metro region accounted for 12 percent (19 projects).
• A total of 1,310 new concrete condominiums were sold
in Q1-2024, a 32 percent decrease from the previous
quarter but up two percent from the same quarter last
year.
• Concrete condominium sales in the City of Vancouver
and Inner Metro region decreased by one percent and
13 percent, respectively, while sales increased in the
Outer Metro region by 53 percent when compared to
Q1-2023.
• Of the 1,310 new concrete condominium sales, 61
percent (797 sales) were in the Inner Metro region, 30
percent (399 sales) in the Outer Metro region, and nine
percent (114 sales) in the City of Vancouver.
1: Released and unsold “inventory” includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under
construction, and completed. “Standing Inventory” refers to unsold units that are complete and move-in ready.
• The Tri-Cities sub-market accounted for the highest
number of concrete condominium sales in Q1-2024,
with 421 units sold, representing 32 percent of all
total concrete sales. The Burnaby/New Westminster
sub-market was the second highest accounting for 369
sales, or 28 percent of total concrete condominium
sales in the first quarter.
• There were 6,998 released and unsold new concrete
condominiums at the end of Q1-2024, which was 326
more units compared to the previous quarter. The Inner
Metro region accounted for the most of these units,
representing 66 percent of all released and unsold
concrete condominiums.
• Out of the 6,998 units of released and unsold concrete
inventory, 1,275 units (18 percent) were move-in ready
at the end of the quarter. This represented a 69 percent
increase in move-in ready concrete condominiums (519
more units) when compared to the same quarter last
year.
• The Inner Metro region accounted for 79 percent (1,008
units), the City of Vancouver accounted for 19 percent
(243 units), and the Outer Metro region accounted
for two percent (24 units) of all the move-in ready
concrete condominium units at the end of the quarter.
State of
the Market
Insights
and Comments
NEW HOME DATA:
CONCRETE
CONDOMINIUMS