Scenario development is a process of imagining plausible future situations and exploring how they might unfold. To do this
efectively, scenario developers often draw on past events and current signals of change to help inform their projections of
the future.
By studying past events, scenario developers can identify patterns and trends that could indicate how the future may unfold.
For example, if there has been a pattern of increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in a particular region,
this could suggest that such events are likely to become more common in the future. Looking at past responses to such
events can also provide insight into how people and organizations may react in similar situations in the future.
Current signals of change can also be important inputs into scenario development. These signals can include social,
economic, and technological trends that are currently unfolding and could shape the future. For example, the rise of
renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are current signals of change that could dramatically impact the future of the
energy industry.
By factoring in both past events and current signals of change, scenario developers can create more robust and accurate
projections of the future. This can help individuals, organizations, and governments prepare for the challenges and
opportunities that lie ahead.
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT