4- VISIONS - Expected, preferred and alternative futures (16-25 years)

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EXPECTED, PREFERRED

AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

VISIONS

Expected, preferred, and alternative futures are diferent ways of describing possible outcomes of

sustainability scenarios. These terms are often used in the context of sustainability planning to

explore and evaluate diferent possible future pathways.

Expected futures refer to the most likely outcome based on current trends, past data, and

projections. Expected futures are often used as a baseline for sustainability planning and can help

identify potential challenges and opportunities.

Preferred futures, on the other hand, describe a vision of what we would like the future to look like.

This vision is often based on desired outcomes and goals for sustainability, such as reduced carbon

emissions, increased biodiversity, or improved social equity. Preferred futures are used to guide

decision-making and to help stakeholders work towards a shared vision.

Alternative futures refer to possible outcomes that diverge from the expected future and the

preferred future. These scenarios are often developed to explore diferent pathways towards

sustainability, and can help identify potential trade-ofs and unintended consequences of diferent

choices.

By considering these diferent types of futures, sustainability planners can better understand the

complex and uncertain nature of sustainability challenges and develop strategies to create a more

sustainable future.

FUTURES LITERACY:

Now, as always, the future is uncertain. Climate change, pandemics, economic crisis, social exclusion, racism,

oppression of women, inter-generational confict, and more, shatter the conventional images of the future that

humans use to feel secure, to be confdent enough to invest in tomorrow.

This is not a small problem. Without images of the future that inspire hope and foster collaboration, there is a high

risk of despair and war. The malaise of poverty-of-the-imagination must be overcome.

Research in the feld of futures studies often distinguishes between three diferent approaches to understanding

the possible trajectories of our future:

The expected future, which is what we anticipate will happen based on current trends and knowledge. This

approach assumes that things will continue as they have been, and provides a baseline for planning and

decision-making.

Alternative futures, which acknowledge that things may not go as expected and explore other possible outcomes.

These futures may involve the emergence of new technologies, unexpected events, or changes in social or political

systems.

Preferred futures, which represent a desired outcome that we hope to achieve. These futures are often based on

values such as sustainability, equity, or social justice, and require deliberate actions and decisions to bring about.

By considering these diferent approaches to understanding the future, we can better anticipate and plan for

diferent possibilities. We can identify potential risks and opportunities, and work towards creating a more

desirable future for ourselves and future generations.

LEARNING A NEW SKILL FOR DEEP TRANSFORMATION

P L AY V I D E O

A Sustainable Future Is Possible

New research shows that meeting global development and conservation goals together is

indeed possible. But only if we make if we make signiﬁcant changes in the ways we provide food,

water, energy and other resources. “An Attainable Global Vision for Conservation and Human

one we could face if we continue on a business-as-usual path. By addressing 10 of the United

Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the stu dy1 emphasizes the health of the

natural environment and links to human health and well-being.

UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDG

ADDRESSED DIRECTLY IN OUR ANALYSIS

The UN SDGs envision a world where all people are fed, healthy, employed, educated,

empowered and thriving, and where all other life persists.

1 The study was conducted by The Nature Conservancy, The University of Minnesota and 11 other institutions.

2 We recognize there are many interconnections among the SDGs. Represented here is the subset included in the modeling exercise.

Visit

nature.org/

twopaths

to learn more.

SDGs

OUR SUSTAINABLE PATH’S

CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE SDG

Better matching crops to growing conditions allows

for meeting calorie demands with less water on

substantially less land

Dramatically shifting energy sources away from fossil

fuels leads to massive reduction in air pollution exposure

Shifting where crops are grown reduces the number of

and supporting freshwater ecosystems

Increasing the share of renewable energy ensures

mitigating climate change

Decoupling aspects of economic growth from

environmental impacts mitigates degradation and

sustains per capita economic projections

Carefully siting clean energy infrastructure provides

Considering optimal locations and total land area use realizes

energy production and natural habitat protection

Stanching the ﬂow of harmful greenhouse gases limits

the global average temperature, meeting Paris Climate

Accord goals

Adopting sustainable management in all ﬁsheries

increases yields and ends overﬁshing while

improving biodiversity

Better siting of crops and energy infrastructure

ensures more natural habitat and protected areas

remain intact

LINKS ACROSS SDG s

AS EXPLORED IN

THE STUDY

Recent research has revealed

that it is possible to achieve

both global development and

conservation goals at the same

time, but doing so will require

signifcant changes in the way

we produce and consume

food, water, energy, and other

resources. A study titled "An

Attainable Global Vision for

Conservation and Human

Well-Being" examines the

possibility of creating a vastly

diferent world by the year

2050 if we depart from the

usual business-as-usual path.

By addressing ten of the

United Nations' Sustainable

Development Goals, the study

underscores the importance of

protecting natural habitats

and their links to human

health and well-being. The

fndings emphasize the urgent

need for action to create a

more sustainable and

equitable world for all.

TWO PATHS TO 2050

"As part of a long and ongoing listening journey

with experts, activists, and scholars across the

world, this is how we envision our future:

AN ECONOMY AND SOCIETY THAT…

1. respects the limits of earth, our air, water, forests

and climate and puts people and planet before

proft and infnite growth

2. provides fair distribution of wealth and power

3. enhances well-being of the people

4. is inclusive, just and diverse

5. promotes the resilience of our communities

AND GOVERNMENTS THAT…

6. increase transparency across political and

economic processes

7. promote real civic participation

8. enhance peace and cooperation between

countries

9. implement policies and mechanisms that hold

state and corporations accountable."

LETIS CHANGE THE

FUTURE TOGETHER

“A Sustainable Future Is Possible New research shows that meeting global development and conservation goals

together is indeed possible. But only if we make if we make signifcant changes in the ways we provide food, water,

energy and other resources. “An Attainable Global Vision for Conservation and Human Well-Being” explores the

potential for a world in 2050 that looks drastically diferent from the one we could face if we continue on a

business-as-usual path. By addressing 10 of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the study

emphasizes the health of the natural environment and links to human health and well-being.”

A SUSTAINABLE

FUTURE IS POSSIBLE

“TNC developed two scenarios for the

future: one was business as usual, and

the other was a conservation pathway.

We learned that by 2050 we can

support

both

conservation

and

economic growth.”

Short-term, medium-term, and long-term approaches

refer to the time horizons over which actions are taken

to achieve sustainability goals. Each of these

approaches has its own implications for sustainability

futures.

Short-term approaches focus on immediate actions to

address pressing issues. They typically involve quick

fxes or short-term solutions that can be implemented

in the near future. Short-term approaches can be

efective in addressing urgent issues, but they may not

be sufcient to achieve long-term sustainability goals.

For example, planting trees to combat deforestation is

a short-term solution that can provide immediate

benefts, but it may not address the underlying causes

of deforestation.

Medium-term approaches involve actions that span

several years or a decade. These approaches aim to

address the underlying causes of sustainability

problems and create systemic change. They often

involve policy and regulatory changes, as well as

investments in new technologies and infrastructure.

Medium-term approaches can be efective in achieving

sustainability goals over a longer time horizon, but

they may require signifcant resources and political will.

Long-term approaches involve actions that span

several decades or even centuries. They aim to create a

more sustainable future for future generations.

Long-term approaches often involve transformative

change, such as shifting to a circular economy or

transitioning to renewable energy sources. Long-term

approaches require a long-term perspective and a

willingness to invest in the future, even if the benefts

may not be immediately visible.

In summary, short-term approaches can provide

immediate benefts but may not address the

underlying

causes

sustainability

problems.

Medium-term approaches can create systemic change

but may require signifcant resources and political will.

Long-term approaches aim to create a more

sustainable future for future generations and require a

long-term perspective and a willingness to invest in the

future. A combination of short-term, medium-term,

and long-term approaches is often necessary to

achieve sustainability goals over diferent time

horizons.

“This fgure shows projected greenhouse gas

concentrations for four diferent emissions pathways.

The top pathway assumes that greenhouse gas

emissions will continue to rise throughout the current

century. The bottom pathway assumes that emissions

reach a peak between 2010 and 2020, declining

thereafter.”

PROJECTED ATMOSPHERIC

GREENHOUSE GAS

CONCENTRATION

DIFFERENT APPROACHES

TO SUSTAINABILITY:

SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG TERM

HOW TO PLAN SHORT-TERM

AND LONG-TERM

SUSTAINABILITY GOALS

Adopting sustainable practices is essential for everyone

because we all interact with the environment and need

to protect it. Despite knowing this for a long time, we

are still facing a climate emergency. To succeed, we

can't rely on sporadic and improvised "green" activities.

Instead, we need structured approaches across every

facet of our society, including short-term and long-term

sustainability goals.

As individuals, it can be overwhelming to feel like our

sustainability eforts lack impact, but with planning and

commitment, individual eforts can have a powerful

cumulative impact. In the short term, we can examine

and improve our environmental, ethical, and social

behavior, such as shopping habits and food waste. In

the

long

term,

can

invest

environmentally-sustainable home by researching

upgrades and creating a budget with milestones. By

understanding the knock-on efects of our choices, we

can make more informed sustainable choices that have

a positive impact on the environment and our

communities.

TAKING THE LONG VIEW:

THE ‘FOREVER LEGACY’ OF CLIMATE CHANGE

It's hard enough to get people to think about what might happen to our planet in the year

2100, but it's even harder to think about what might happen just a couple of centuries later.

Recent research shows that we need to think about what could happen 200 or 300 years

from now if we don't stop putting greenhouse gases into the air. It might seem strange to

use the word "urgent" for something that won't happen for hundreds of years, but the truth

is that if we don't stop polluting, it will change the planet in a big way for thousands of years

to come. So it's really important that we start doing something about it now, even if we

won't see the efects in our lifetime.

WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE INNOVATION?

“Sustainable innovation involves making intentional changes to a

company’s products, services, or processes to generate long-term

social and environmental benefts while creating economic profts

for the frm. That defnition comes from researcher Richard Adams,

who reviewed academic and industry research on the topic.”

P L AY

Scenario development is a process of imagining plausible future situations and exploring how they might unfold. To do this

efectively, scenario developers often draw on past events and current signals of change to help inform their projections of

the future.

By studying past events, scenario developers can identify patterns and trends that could indicate how the future may unfold.

For example, if there has been a pattern of increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in a particular region,

this could suggest that such events are likely to become more common in the future. Looking at past responses to such

events can also provide insight into how people and organizations may react in similar situations in the future.

Current signals of change can also be important inputs into scenario development. These signals can include social,

economic, and technological trends that are currently unfolding and could shape the future. For example, the rise of

renewable energy sources and electric vehicles are current signals of change that could dramatically impact the future of the

energy industry.

By factoring in both past events and current signals of change, scenario developers can create more robust and accurate

projections of the future. This can help individuals, organizations, and governments prepare for the challenges and

opportunities that lie ahead.

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

INNOVATION NEEDS IN THE

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

SCENARIO

SCENARIOS CAN

INFORM DECISION

MAKING

Scenarios can be used to explore diferent potential

futures and how they might impact our world. By

creating scenarios, we can identify possible risks and

opportunities for a sustainable future. Decision-makers

can use these scenarios to assess the efectiveness of

diferent policies and actions, and to identify which

choices will best support sustainable development.

For example, a scenario could explore how a certain

policy might afect greenhouse gas emissions and air

pollution, as well as the economic and social impacts of

that policy. Decision-makers can then compare this

scenario to others and choose the one that provides the

most positive outcomes for a sustainable future.

By using scenarios to inform decision-making, we can

better understand the potential consequences of our

actions and make more informed choices about how we

build a sustainable future.

WHAT ARE THE SDG IMPACT

STANDARDS?

The SDG Impact Standards are a set of guidelines that

help companies and investors make decisions that

support

sustainability

and

the

Sustainable

Development Goals. These guidelines are similar to

other standards that companies follow, like ISO

standards. The SDG Impact Standards help companies

fgure out how to measure their impact on

sustainability and the SDGs. They are not rules for

external reporting or measuring how well a company is

doing. Instead, they are a way for companies to make

good choices that support sustainability and the SDGs.

The SDG Impact Standards use existing ideas and tools

but also fll in gaps to help companies make better

decisions that support sustainability and the SDGs.

PARTICIPATORY SCENARIO

DEVELOPMENT FOR CLIMATE

CHANGE ADAPTATION

Scenario development is a method for exploring

diferent possible futures and how they could be

impacted by climate change and diferent

adaptation options. This helps decision makers,

such as policy makers and service providers, to

understand

what

types

policies

and

investments may be needed to adapt to these

potential

futures.

Participatory

scenario

development involves getting input from local

people to understand their priorities and

knowledge when making these decisions.

Scenarios are not predictions of what will

happen, but rather a way to explore diferent

outcomes based on diferent assumptions.

Stakeholder

involvement

increasingly

important in the scenario development process.

P L AY V I D E O

In order to achieve the goal of zero emissions,

we need to adapt or transform most of the

energy system we use today. This means we

need to develop and use new technologies

that can meet our energy needs while reducing

our carbon footprint. However, developing and

bringing new technologies to the market takes

a lot of time, and we can't predict which ideas

will

successful.

The

Sustainable

Development Scenario focuses on using

technologies that are already proven and have

a clear pathway to commercial scaling up. Still,

unexpected events and responses from

companies, investors, and governments could

delay or disrupt the clean energy transition.

Around 75% of the emissions reductions

needed by 2070 will come from technologies

that are not yet widely available, so we need to

focus on developing these technologies in

heavy industry and long-distance transport.

Overall, technological change is a key driver of

the clean energy transition, but it requires a lot

of time, efort, and investment to make it

happen.

DECISION-MAKING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:

HOW ASSESSMENT CAN HELP

Governments have recognized for over 20 years the importance of developing sustainably so that future generations can

also meet their own needs. However, unsustainable development is still happening in the UNECE region. Governments and

civil society can infuence decision-making in favor of sustainable development by raising awareness and imposing

constraints and incentives.

Impact assessments are tools used to identify existing constraints and to impose additional procedural and design

constraints. Procedural constraints require certain actions, such as the distribution of information and the participation of

the public. These may cause delays and additional costs, but they can also bring planning benefts. Design constraints may

be imposed by measures to prevent or reduce adverse impacts.

Regulatory impact assessment provides information on the likely economic, social, and environmental impacts of diferent

regulatory options to achieve particular policy objectives. This allows decision-makers to see the advantages, disadvantag-

es, and risks of each option.

Similarly, environmental impact assessment is a tool used to identify and assess the environmental and socio-economic

impacts of planned projects. It provides opportunities for comment by the authorities and the public and allows for meas-

ures to be introduced to prevent, reduce or mitigate impacts. Environmental impact assessment is now provided in the

legislation of all but a few States. It is sometimes combined with cost-beneft analyses to provide an economic dimension.

WHY CLIMATE POLICY SCENARIOS ARE IMPORTANT,

HOW TO USE THEM, AND WHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED

In a perfect world, policymakers would use various policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but the most important

policy would be to put a price on carbon emissions that refects their actual cost to society. However, the real world is full

of uncertainty, which makes it difcult to estimate the true cost of carbon emissions due to factors like climate science,

economic impact, and discount rates. As a result, researchers, businesses, and policymakers are turning to scenario analy-

sis to better understand how to address climate change. Scenarios help policymakers adapt to changing circumstances by

taking into account things like new technology and the economy's response to climate policies. However, policymakers

need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of diferent modelling approaches to use scenarios efectively.

When we think about the future, we often look at big,

long-term trends called "mega-trends." These trends

afect a lot of people, places, and even the whole world

over a long period of time, often at least a decade or

more. Because they are already happening, we can see

and measure them. Mega-trends are like a big,

slow-moving force that shapes our future, and they are

hard to change quickly. But because they are based on

data from the past, they are more reliable than other

predictions about the future.

EFFECTS CAUSED BY HUMANS PLAY A MAJOR

ROLE WHEN MAPPING ALTERNATIVE AND

PREFERRED FUTURE SCENARIOS.

Efects caused by humans, such as economic growth, population growth, technological advancements, and changes

in behavior, have a signifcant impact on the environment and society. When mapping alternative and preferred future

scenarios, it is important to consider these human-driven factors as they shape the trajectory of the future. Without

taking into account the efects caused by humans, it would be impossible to accurately predict what the future may

look like or what actions could lead to a desired future outcome. Understanding how human-driven factors impact the

environment and society is crucial for developing policies and strategies that promote sustainability and a better

future for all.

ON THE ROAD TO THE FUTURE:

THE CATALYSTS

THINKING FORWARD:

HOW CAN WE PLAN AND ACHIEVE

PREFERRED FUTURES?

When we think about the future, we're better at

predicting things that are far away than things that are

close. This is because things that happen quickly and

don't last very long are harder to see. These

fast-changing things are called "catalysts" because

they speed up or slow down other big trends. Unlike

these big trends, we can change catalysts more easily,

but they can also cause other changes. Catalysts

happen quickly, usually within six months to fve years,

and afect people's daily lives. For this reason, they are

important to pay attention to in planning for the

future. An example of a catalyst is a violent confict,

which requires quick action and can trigger other

changes like migration or populism. Decision-makers

need to focus on catalysts because they happen

quickly and require immediate attention, unlike

slow-moving big trends.

MEGA

The ocean is important to us and we depend on it in

many ways. However, the way we use it is changing

and we need to take action to make sure we can

continue to use it sustainably. To do this, we need to

work together across diferent felds of expertise

and make changes to the way we research and

manage the ocean. There are four important areas

we need to focus on: the environment, the economy,

society and culture, and governance. If we can

address these areas and work towards sustainability,

we will be better equipped to adapt to the challeng-

es of climate change and ensure a better future for

everyone.

P L AY V I D E O

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