Expected, preferred, and alternative futures are diferent ways of describing possible outcomes of
sustainability scenarios. These terms are often used in the context of sustainability planning to
explore and evaluate diferent possible future pathways.
Expected futures refer to the most likely outcome based on current trends, past data, and
projections. Expected futures are often used as a baseline for sustainability planning and can help
identify potential challenges and opportunities.
Preferred futures, on the other hand, describe a vision of what we would like the future to look like.
This vision is often based on desired outcomes and goals for sustainability, such as reduced carbon
emissions, increased biodiversity, or improved social equity. Preferred futures are used to guide
decision-making and to help stakeholders work towards a shared vision.
Alternative futures refer to possible outcomes that diverge from the expected future and the
preferred future. These scenarios are often developed to explore diferent pathways towards
sustainability, and can help identify potential trade-ofs and unintended consequences of diferent
choices.
By considering these diferent types of futures, sustainability planners can better understand the
complex and uncertain nature of sustainability challenges and develop strategies to create a more
sustainable future.
FUTURES LITERACY:
Now, as always, the future is uncertain. Climate change, pandemics, economic crisis, social exclusion, racism,
oppression of women, inter-generational confict, and more, shatter the conventional images of the future that
humans use to feel secure, to be confdent enough to invest in tomorrow.
This is not a small problem. Without images of the future that inspire hope and foster collaboration, there is a high
risk of despair and war. The malaise of poverty-of-the-imagination must be overcome.
Research in the feld of futures studies often distinguishes between three diferent approaches to understanding
the possible trajectories of our future:
The expected future, which is what we anticipate will happen based on current trends and knowledge. This
approach assumes that things will continue as they have been, and provides a baseline for planning and
decision-making.
Alternative futures, which acknowledge that things may not go as expected and explore other possible outcomes.
These futures may involve the emergence of new technologies, unexpected events, or changes in social or political
systems.
Preferred futures, which represent a desired outcome that we hope to achieve. These futures are often based on
values such as sustainability, equity, or social justice, and require deliberate actions and decisions to bring about.
By considering these diferent approaches to understanding the future, we can better anticipate and plan for
diferent possibilities. We can identify potential risks and opportunities, and work towards creating a more
desirable future for ourselves and future generations.
LEARNING A NEW SKILL FOR DEEP TRANSFORMATION
P L AY V I D E O