Retrospect Volume V

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LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025

Markets have been on edge lately

about when the U.S. Federal

Reserve plans to cut rates. With the

Fed set to issue an update to its

closely watched dot plot, it’s good

to remember that historical

projections can be poor predictors,

especially when the Fed is

determined to remain ‘data-

dependent’ and market events

remain fluid. As the chart above

shows, the Fed ‘dots’ have

historically been an inaccurate

indicator of where the federal funds

rate has ultimately gone.

The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics are quickly approaching. They are scheduled

to take place from July 26th to August 11th. This marks exactly one century

since Paris last hosted the Summer Olympics in 1924. The event will be

broadcast by NBC, with coverage by Snoop Dogg.

The Rest of 2024

Casey, Mark, et al. “Separating AI Hype from Investment Opportunity.” CapitalGroup NACG, 3 May 2024, www.capitalgroup.com/ria/insights/articles/separating-ai-hype-investment-opportunity.html.

Aliaga-Díaz, Roger. “Why We Expect the Fed to Remain Cautious.” Vanguard, 13 Mar. 2024, advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/why-we-expect-the-fed-to-remain-cautious.

Where are rates headed?

The U.S. economy continues to grow

at a healthy pace despite a

significant increase in the fed funds

rate to its current range of 5.25% to

5.50%, a 23-year high. The

International Monetary Fund (IMF) is

now predicting that the U.S.

economy will expand this year at

more than twice the rate of other

major developed countries.

Although the Fed's efforts to combat

inflation have been successful,

inflation remains significantly above

the Fed's 2% target.

RETROSPECT

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