Vacancy Rate & Rental Supply Projection (High/Low)
Vacancy Rate (to 2021): Vancouver CMA Annual Vacancy Rate, CMHC Rental Market Reports
Inventory (to 2021): Vancouver CMA Number of Private Rental Apartments in the University, CMHC Rental Market Reports
Projection Rationale: The 5-year projection (2021-2026) shows potential high/low inventory growth scenarios to demostrate the level to which vacancy rates may adjust
over the 5-year projection. There are a number of factors that impact vacancy rate in addition to supply, which are not considered in this demonstrative projection.
High Supply: Assumes a hypothetical 10%r net increase per annum to the historical CMHC rental inventory. The vacancy rate projection shows a rising rate under high
inventory growth where supply outweighs demand. Under this assumption, equilirium is achieved at 3.00% vacancy and average rents would be expected to flatten.
Low Supply: Assumes a hypthetical 5% net increase per annum to the historical CMHC rental inventory. The vacancy rate projection shows a decreasing rate under low
inventory growth where demand outweighs supply Under this assumption, vacancy returns to 1.0% and average rents would be expected to continue to rise.
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
VACANCY RATE
RENTAL SUPPLY
PROJECTION VACANCY% (High Supply) VACANCY% (Low Supply)
INVENTORY (High Supply) INVENTORY (Low Supply)
The graph below depicts the impact of increasing supply on vacancy rates. Generally, a 3% vacancy rate is
considered a requirement to achieve a balanced market, however the historical vacancy rates shown below are
much lower. The dotted lines in the graph below demonstrate a high and low scenario of new supply, while the
straight lines demonstrate the potential impact to the vacancy rate. The blue line displays a high supply scenario
that could stabilize the vacancy rate over a 5-year forecast.